Can ASEAN Afford Not to Raise its Ambitions in a Multipolar World?

By OOI KEE BENG, for The Edge Malaysia, 25-31 August 2024

THE MULTIPOLAR WORLD is upon us. And the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has a vital role to play. The need for it to evolve—to finally mature, some would say—to meet new challenges posed by the post-unipolar era is strong, and this is clearest to see if we deliberate over its history within the evolution of geopolitics in the world, and in the region.

ASEAN’s growth through post-colonial struggles, the bipolar Cold War and the unipolar neoliberalism of the last quarter century, now locates it in a world where it can seriously work towards becoming as much a geopolitical and geo-economic pole as Japan or India are.

And in a nascent multipolar world, the organisation may no longer keep to the consultative, consensual and lethargic game that it is used to playing. Building on its own express ambitions of recent decades, it needs to exhibit integral ambition, integral strength and integral conviction if it is to thrive in, and contribute towards building a multipolar system of trade and diplomacy.

And Malaysia becoming the chair for the organisation next year, at a time that is critical not only to the country’s economic wellbeing but also to the geopolitical future of the region, puts the country and its government in a position of responsibility—and possibility—beyond earlier occasions when it held that seat.

This new era calls for ASEAN to realise that its evolution since its founding on 8 August 1967 has been largely in response to the geopolitical conditions of the times. It did not always call the shots. But as geopolitical conditions shifted, it did see chances and show enough agency to design its own growth, first through its expansion to include as members all countries south of China, east of India, and north of Australia, and then most boldly to aim for regional integration, staggered though that process had to be.

Integration is indeed a big word, a great goal; what we have seen in recent decades is that economic integration offers the easiest path for the region to punch above its weight, and hopefully become geopolitically weighty in essence as well

From bipolar to unipolar

ASEAN member states, including Indonesia, are still new nations. Their future is never quite certain, their societies are often rife with silent tensions, and their shifting usefulness to big powers always puts them in precarious situations that requires skilful diplomacy to manage.

Peaceful coexistence between mutually respectful sovereign states has been the ideology of the region. And as long as that can happen, each could then imagine developing their economies and societies in their own way.

Their history cannot however be studied outside of the geopolitical conditions provided for them to come into being and to be members of the newly created United Nations Organisation in the post-WWII period. Whichever the dynamics were that allowed for nationalist movements to hold sway and found new governments, these countries had to immediately function within evolving geopolitical tensions.

Geopolitics had been defined by European powers until the mid-20^th century, in fact, one could say that global warfare was defined by European powers until the first Sino-Japanese War of 1894, and the Russo-Japanese War in 1905.

Sino-Japanese conflicts never really stopped until 1945, and as post-colonial countries came into being thereafter, these nascent nations suffered different levels of internecine battles while trying to fit into the New World Order centred around the United Nations Organisation.

Civil wars broke out openly in China, in Korea, in Vietnam, and all within the shifting of power from Pax Britannia to Pax Americana.

Their nation-building process had had to happen within harsh alignments penned by big power politics. At the risk of sounding glib, if post-colonial nationalism boosted by the Japanese defeat of European powers in the Far East was the mother of these nations, then the Cold War was its father.

There might have been some peace for some of these households, but harmony was often lacking Whether with external help and intervention or not, tensions had been high throughout the region, and conflicts widespread, either as internecine struggles or anti-colonial war.

Even Malaysia cannot truthfully say that its independence was a fully peaceful handover of power by the British. After all, geopolitical expediencies felt by colonial powers were a major consideration in the rise of nation states in this part of the world.

ASEAN thus came into being as a diplomatic framing of the regional conditions surrounding the new Southeast Asian nations. Tellingly, during the bipolar era before 1991, its members were from the archipelagic half of the region. After that, as the unipolar era dominated by the USA rooted itself, ASEAN’s leaders found courage to embrace all the regional countries and to imagine levels of integration that would equip them with greater geopolitical agency.

From unipolar to multipolar

Functioning as nascent states within what has been geopolitical uncertainties, ASEAN’s member states have in many ways limited the organisation’s political ambitions, societal optimism and organisational behaviour. But as the geopolitical situation changes radically, its leaders will have to up their game, and dare to imagine ASEAN becoming a vibrant and influential pole in a multipolar world.

Nation-building in Southeast Asia is tied in the long run to Region-building; and the connection between regional development and national development has never been as important as it is now for ASEAN member states. The realities of geopolitics have always been the backdrop for the development of ASEAN and of its member states. Managing the opportunities of emergent multipolarity could provide the bold regional synergy so far found wanting in the region.

Datuk Dr Ooi Kee Beng is the executive director of Penang Institute, and Senior Visiting Fellow at ISEAS — Yusof Ishak Institute. His upcoming book is a compilation titled “The Reluctant Nation: Malaysia’s Vain Search for Common Purpose” (Gerakbudaya). Homepage: wikibeng.com.